Haze threat looms as Indonesia battles early forest fires ahead of El Nino

JAKARTA – Indonesia is bracing itself for an unusually harsh and prolonged dry season in 2026, with forest and land fires already on the rise even ahead of the onset of El Nino.

El Nino is a climate phenomenon that results in less rain, longer dry spells and higher temperatures for South-east Asia.

Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency recently forecast a 50 per cent to 60 per cent chance of a weak to moderate El Nino developing by the second half of 2026, warning that this could exacerbate drought conditions.

The National Research and Innovation Agency offered a more dire prediction on March 19, warning that a massive climate phenomenon dubbed “Godzilla El Nino” is set to hit the country starting in April.

​In any case, fire occurrences in Sumatra and Kalimantan have already picked up, said the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB).

Between Jan 1 and March 24, 2,713ha of forest and land were burned in Riau, caused by a doubling in the number of fires compared with the same period in 2025.

Historically, Riau province – along with South Sumatra and Jambi – was a primary contributor to the severe transboundary smoke haze that drifted into Singapore and other parts of South-east Asia in 2013 and 2015.

The current decreasing rainfall and emergence of hot spots in Riau prompted the provincial administration to declare an emergency alert for forest and land fires on Feb 13, in effect till Nov 30.

​“The weather in Riau this year is much hotter. We normally have some rain around the end of January and then March, but this year, we didn’t,” Mr Edy Afrizal, head of Riau’s provincial disaster management agency (BPBD), told The Straits Times. The agency is run by provincial officials under the coordination of BNPB.

​Riau is Indonesia’s second-closest province to Singapore geographically, after the Riau Islands, home to Batam. The province consists of 10 regencies and two cities, with Dumai city and the regencies of Pelalawan and Bengkalis being the worst-hit areas in Indonesia currently.

Mr Edy explained that Riau’s location on the Equator subjects it to two dry spells a year – one early in the year and another in mid-year. Most parts of Indonesia typically experience only a single mid-year dry season.

Firefighting in hot spots

​With the emergency alert status, the Riau administration can request assistance from Jakarta, which has so far deployed water bombing helicopters and cloud-seeding aircraft.

They have conducted six helicopter water bombing missions over the fires since March 24, and three cloud-seeding operations – one in late February and two so far in March. The cloud-seeding induced rain hours later, Mr Edy said.

​In Dumai city, around 400 residents have been affected by haze from hot spots outside their villages. Mr Edy noted that the distance has helped shield them from the “most choking” effects of the haze.

Covering 1,727 sq km, Dumai is more than twice the size of Singapore. The distance between Dumai’s northernmost and southernmost points is 90km.

Fires in the other two worst-affected areas, Bengkalis and Pelalawan, are mostly located far from residential areas, with a few exceptions, including a rubber plantation in Pedekik village in Bengkalis.

“There are a lot of haze particles coming from the burnt land blown by the wind, but generally, it hasn’t reached a severe point that impedes daily activity or affects health,” said Pedekik village secretary Masykur, who goes by one name.

“Village officers, the provincial disaster management agency and volunteers are continuously working to douse fires in villagers’ plantations and other lands,” he told ST.

At the provincial level, backup efforts are being conducted from the air, but more fleet resources from Jakarta have yet to be deployed.

​“One helicopter – deployed by BNPB – is currently operating in Riau. We are asking BNPB for further deployment. The ideal number is between eight and 12 water bombing helicopters for Riau,” Mr Edy said.

​Two other provinces, Central Kalimantan and the Riau Islands, are also seeing a rise in hot spots, but with less severity, BNPB said on March 26.

​In Central Kalimantan, 321ha of forest and land were burned between Jan 1 and March 25. 

The province was the epicentre of devastating forest and land fires in 2015, which triggered a massive public health and environmental crisis in parts of the region. Around 584,000ha of forest and land in Central Kalimantan and 139,000ha in Riau were burned then, according to the government.

At the time, toxic haze blanketed parts of Indonesia, Singapore and parts of Malaysia for months, pushing air quality indexes to hazardous levels. It forced the widespread closure of schools, businesses and airports in Indonesia.

​The prolonged disaster caused severe respiratory illnesses, including acute respiratory infections, affecting more than 500,000 people in Indonesia, according to BNPB.

On the current firefighting efforts, Dr Abdul Muhari, BNPB’s head of data, information and communication, said on March 26: ​“Fire extinguishment efforts and land patrols have continued to prevent the spread of the fire.”

Campaign against land burning

​Police in the Riau Islands have launched a social media campaign against land burning.

On March 24, they posted a one-minute animated video on Instagram, illustrating the magnitude of destruction that land and forest fires can cause.

For years, Indonesia has been battling the practice of farmers and recalcitrant corporations resorting to cheap slash-and-burn methods to clear land for plantations, instead of hiring excavators and tractors. Huge fires have also frequently been sparked by negligent individuals carelessly tossing cigarette butts.

​“A single small spark can destroy thousands of hectares of our beautiful forests in the Riau Islands in the blink of an eye,” the video narrated.

​“During the dry season, peatlands and dry leaves become extremely vulnerable. Even the slightest negligence can have fatal consequences. Do you know that intentionally burning land can land the perpetrator in prison for up to 15 years?” it said.

​“The smoke from these fires can bring the economy to a halt and endanger our children’s health.”